🏙️ Your pipeline is your lifeline

Good morning. It's Sunday, April 26th, and in this week's edition, we're covering how a half-empty NYC tower clawed its way back to a record $327 per square foot rent, J.P. Morgan's read on why the Fed is staying put through 2026, and a personal piece on why letting your acquisition pipeline go cold is the most expensive mistake in this business.

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Looked at an interesting opportunity this week: a 75% occupied, value-add neighborhood center. It’s off-market, direct from the seller. Pricing guidance was $2.3M-$2.5M, which, based on my rough numbers, was a 6%-6.5% cap in place, and after filling two vacancies is north of an 8% cap. It’s a little too far for me for this type of light lift. If you’re close by and this is in your wheelhouse, I’ll be happy to introduce you to the seller.

Here is the high level:

If you're interested, reply to this email. I'll send the NDA and facilitate the introduction.

Nine West 57th Street, the 50-story Manhattan landmark known for its sloping shape and Central Park views, has gone from half-empty to nearly fully leased. The Wall Street Journal walks through how Stefan Soloviev pulled it off, spending $50M+ on a gym, a Picasso-and-Matisse art gallery, and a forthcoming Catch Hospitality restaurant. Top-floor rent now sits at $327.50 per foot, the highest ever recorded in Manhattan.

What it means for CRE: Premium Midtown vacancy fell from 22.3% to 16.4% in two years while broader U.S. office vacancy actually got worse. Real capex before the rent push is the playbook in this cycle.

🔗 "Real Estate Prices Will Never Be The Same (Syndicators In Panic Mode)": Ken McElroy has a conversation with Grant Cardone about why syndicators are panicking, what's happening with distressed deals, and where real estate prices go from here. Watch here

🔗 "From Chicago Board of Trade to The Salt Shed: Meet Chicago's Most Creative Developers, R2": Joe Smazal interviews R2 co-founders Matt Garrison and Zach Cupkovic on building Chicago's iconic loft portfolio and the Urban Flex office strategy. Watch here

🔗 "The Human Advantage with Angus Fletcher": Willy Walker sits down with Ohio State professor Angus Fletcher to explore IQ, EQ, primal intelligence, storytelling in leadership, and why humans still matter. Watch here

Despite oil prices still elevated and the Middle East conflict dragging on, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75% at the April 28-29 meeting, and to keep them there for the rest of 2026. The next move, per their forecast, is a 25 bp hike in Q3 2027, not a cut. March headline CPI jumped 0.9% on energy prices, but core CPI was a tame 0.2%, and the labor market snapped back with 178k payrolls and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%.

CRE Impact: Anyone underwriting a 2027 refi off the back of expected rate cuts is now working with a forecast that flatly says rates are not coming down. Plan for current debt costs to persist into 2027, build cushion accordingly, and stop modeling cap rate compression that the Fed will not be funding.

Don Gudmundson was my first managing broker at Century 21, more than 20 years ago.

I didn't know anything about real estate or sales when I started, a complete newbie (though coachable to 120%).

He sat me down and said something I've never forgotten:

"This business is simple. The one who makes the most phone calls wins."

That was it. I didn’t need an elaborate system, or over-complicated 12-step funnel.

I walked into the office, found the Mike Ferry script sitting on a shelf (OGs will remember that name) and started dialing sellers.

I began getting business pretty much right away.

Fast forward to 2023 and 2024.

We were killing it, with new projects stacking up, deals closing, and stabilization work everywhere. But quietly, without me noticing, focus on the new deals pipeline went cold.

I wasn't ignoring it on purpose. I was just busy with leasing, construction draws, team huddles, and site visits.

The machine was running hot, but the acquisition engine had stalled.

Greg Pinneo, one of the sharpest minds in creative seller financing and someone I've learned so much from, has a line I keep coming back to:

Never let the pipeline go.

Simple and obvious, and apparently really easy to ignore when you're heads-down in deals.

In the last two years, my focus on new pipeline slowly dwindled. By 2024, I wasn't really focused on it at all, and I felt it.

I let pipeline work slide to the bottom of the list, after the lease review, after the draw, after the team huddle.

About two months ago, I made a change and went back to basics.

First thing in the morning, before anything else, I open my deal pipeline and spend the first hour or two moving conversations forward. Prospect deals, existing deals waiting on a next step, whoever needs a nudge toward clarity, an offer, or an appointment.

Just brokers and sellers on the phone, dialing. That's it.

I also went back to meeting two people a week face to face, brokers, sellers, and bankers, over coffee, lunch, or by poking my head into someone's office.

The bar is two minimum, every week, no exceptions.

And I started sending direct mail again, letters to sellers I first reached out to five years ago, getting calls back.

What works for me may not be your move.

Some of you run cold email campaigns, some do paid ads, some are crushing it on social. Run with whatever works!

An hour, maybe two, every morning, non-negotiable, with all your focus on the pipeline, moving it forward. The pipeline gets the front of your day, not whatever energy is left over at the end of it.

If you need a metaphor to really drive it home, your pipeline is a locomotive.

When it's moving, it just needs a gentle push to keep rolling. The moment it stops, fully stops, you're not pushing anymore. You're trying to restart a dead engine, and that restart takes months, sometimes years.

Don't stop the train.

One more thing. I'm building an AI-powered deal pipeline assistant, something designed to help you move your deals faster and with more clarity.

If you want early access, join the waitlist here.

Depending on demand, I'll open it up to readers first.

Now, I'm curious. What are your non-negotiable pipeline habits?

What keeps your deal flow moving, even when life gets loud?

Hit reply. I read every one.

Until next Sunday.

Be well,

Saul

P.S. Missed my podcast with Tim Chen? Here is the full episode.

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Random Saul Fact: Summer intern deal agreed this past week with my oldest son Marty. Excited to collaborate on new projects together this summer.