🗞️ News & Moves 🏠

Commercial Observer dropped its 2026 asset class predictions. Here's a quick round-up:

  • Manhattan office flips to a landlord's market with availability at 16.6% and no new supply until 2030-32. 

  • Data centers remain red-hot but power constraints are the bottleneck. 

  • Some $539 billion in commercial mortgages mature this year, with only one-fifth of CRE execs expecting to pay off loans on time. 

  • And retail's bifurcation continues. Top malls at near-zero availability while weaker properties face headwinds.

🚨The Fed Pulse🚨

U.S. 5 Year Treasury

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Fed Funds Rate

3.74% ⬆️

4.19% ⬆️

3.64% ⏸️

The Fed's 2026 shake-up is setting up a showdown between Powell's final months and Trump's push for aggressive rate cuts. Powell's term expires in May, with Trump expected to name his replacement in early January (Kevin Hassett leads prediction markets). After cutting 75 basis points in 2025, markets are pricing just two quarter-point cuts for 2026. For CRE investors watching the 10-Year stubbornly hover above 4%, don't expect dramatic repricing of capital costs anytime soon.

🏢 Chicago CRE Insider 📈

Chicago's industrial market spent 2025 in suspended animation. Plenty of tours and RFPs, but deals wouldn't cross the finish line as tariff uncertainty froze tenant decisions. The good news: O'Hare has flipped dramatically in recent months, with big box activity rumbling back along I-80 and Joliet. Landlords are getting creative with TI packages to maintain base rents while second-gen space pressures renewals. The 2026 prediction: Pent-up demand finally releases, and owners who adapted will be first to benefit.

I've been setting goals for almost two decades. 

Tried every framework, tweaked it every year, and ultimately learned a very valuable lesson:

The obstacle isn't unclear goals. It's too much stuff in your life.

We’re monkeys. We want more territory. 

So, we aim for the stars and hope to land on the moon. We stack goal on top of goal, resolution on top of resolution.

But entrepreneurs don't have a goal problem. We have too many "YESes" piled up like dead weight.

Before you reverse-engineer your 2026 goals, try this instead: 

Sit in silence and ask “what's ​gotta go?"

I call this section of my annual planning "Pruning My Garden." And honestly, it's the most important part.

I break it into two subsections:

1. What I Will Stop Doing

These are things already in your life. Habits, commitments, relationships, deals that drain focus and energy.

You're doing them now, and they need to go!

It could be a bad habit, a draining relationship, or a deal you keep life-supporting because you're too stubborn to walk away - anything consuming bandwidth without producing results.

2. What I Will Say No To

This one's about the future. It's a filter.

When new opportunities float into your universe (and they will) this list tells you what doesn't get a "yes" anymore.

No more shiny object syndrome. No more saying yes out of guilt, FOMO, or politeness. 

If your gut sends you a weird signal (it doesn't matter how pretty that opportunity is), don't do it!

You see, most goals are already within your reach. 

You don't need to increase the pace, pitch, or effort. You just need to remove the garbage standing in the way.

When you prune the garden, the goal gets easier. Sometimes you get things you didn't even set as goals just because you finally made space for them

It's that powerful. I've experienced this so many times. 

So before you build the vision board, before you pick your “word of the year,” ask yourself:

What do I need to remove?

That question will do more for your 2026 than any resolution.

Now, one of my own goals this year (beyond all the pruning) is to help 25 people through coaching, advice, or a single conversation.

I want to track it, measure it, and know that my interaction actually moved the needle for someone.

I think I can help most with deal structures or relationships: partnership dynamics, business relationships, even personal ones. 

If you're stuck in one of those areas, reply to this email.

I’d love to help.

Finally, to wrap today’s newsletter up, I’ve got a question for you:

What’s on your pruning list for 2026? 

Don’t hold back. Shoot me a reply with one or two things you need to cut out of your life.

I know it's not easy. I know it's so much more exciting to dream big and visualize the audacious goal happening. 

But I'm telling you: you need to remove that thing in order for other things to show up.

What’s getting cut from your life this year?

Reply back. I’ll read every one.

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