Regional banks are proving more resilient than the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest, but office loans remain the sector's bleeding wound. At least eight mid-sized lenders reported lower non-performing CRE loans in Q3 compared to last year, with Flagstar (formerly NYCB) even reducing its office loss allowances by 142 basis points after last year's meltdown spooked the sector. The good news ends there: office property delinquencies hit a record 11.76%, and roughly $936 billion in CRE mortgages are maturing next year, with office loans comprising about one-fifth of that pile. Even biotech real estate is catching heat as lab vacancy rates climbed to 22.7% across top markets while cash-strapped startups shelve expansion plans. For CRE investors, it's a mixed bag: the broader portfolio might be stabilizing, but office exposure remains a ticking time bomb that rate cuts alone won't defuse.

New York City just handed the keys to Zohran Mamdani, a 38-year-old Democratic Socialist who campaigned on rent freezes and massive affordable housing expansion, sending shockwaves through a CRE community already drafting Florida relocation plans. The millennial mayor-elect is promising 200,000 new residential units over the next decade (heavily weighted toward affordable), fast-tracked approvals for 100% affordable projects, and a $100 billion housing commitment financed through municipal bonds and city land activation. His signature pledge of freezing rents for NYC's 1 million rent-stabilized apartments faces fewer obstacles than expected since he can immediately appoint six expired Rent Guidelines Board seats, though industry insiders note he'll need to offset landlord costs (he's floated expanding captive insurance programs). Here's the reality check: building more housing and streamlining approvals are squarely within mayoral control, but his proposed corporate tax hikes to 11.5% and millionaire income taxes require Albany's blessing, and Gov. Hochul has already called tax increases a "non-starter." For developers and landlords, the next four years promise ideological battles over affordability versus profitability, though savvy operators note every NYC mayor eventually finds common ground with the real estate industry.

Chair Powell played coy about December rate cuts last week, but Goldman Sachs is calling BS on the hawkish posturing. They're still betting on another 25-basis-point cut before year-end. Powell acknowledged "strongly different views" on the FOMC and noted a "growing chorus" favoring a pause, but Goldman points out the Fed's September projections implied a December cut as baseline, and the labor market keeps cooling in ways that justify continued easing. The Fed dropped rates to 3.75-4% in October while halting balance sheet runoff, with Powell admitting policy remains "modestly restrictive," exactly why they'll likely cut again despite the government shutdown limiting fresh data. Here's what matters for CRE: even with two cuts since September, new commercial loans issued in 2025 will still carry 6.24% average rates versus 4.76% on maturing loans, so don't expect any dramatic refinancing relief. With $936 billion in CRE mortgages maturing next year and the Fed's cuts slow to filter through to longer-term Treasury yields that actually drive commercial pricing, borrowers facing maturity walls shouldn't count on Powell to save them.

JLL just delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, posting a 44% earnings jump to $222.8 million as both occupiers and investors finally got off the sidelines. The Chicago brokerage giant raised its full-year EBITDA outlook by $75 million after Q3 revenue hit $6.5 billion (up 10%), driven by a 22% surge in capital markets and healthy gains in both office (+14%) and industrial (+6%) leasing revenue. CEO Christian Ulbrich noted that clients are "motivated to transact" as forward indicators stabilized, with the firm benefiting from larger deal sizes and higher transaction volumes across the board, particularly in U.S. industrial markets where demand for high-quality assets remains strong. JLL joins CBRE, Cushman, Newmark, and Colliers in posting impressive quarterly gains and raising 2025 guidance, signaling that the transactional freeze that gripped CRE over the past two years is finally thawing. For investors and developers, this is the strongest signal yet that deal activity is back, though whether this momentum carries into 2026 depends largely on whether borrowers can navigate those massive maturity walls without imploding.

In our interview last month, Kevin Bupp told me about the moment in 2016 when he nearly lost his mind.

He had six mobile home park deals under contract, all closing within weeks of each other. His lawyer's invoice for six separate PPMs came back cost prohibitive. His spreadsheet tracking different investor groups across different close dates had become an absolute nightmare.

"My head was about to explode," Kevin said. "How about we just make this easier?"

That crisis forced him into his first fund. Today, he's wrapping up his fourth, 200 million in assets under management. Here's when a fund actually makes sense.

Six deals meant six legal packages, six capital raises, and six separate investor communication channels running simultaneously. 

When one deal got delayed, Kevin had to call 30 investors explaining why their money was sitting idle. When another closed early, he was scrambling to accelerate wire transfers from a different group.

Kevin realized he'd need an additional team member just to manage the logistics. The legal fees were painful, but the time cost was worse. He was spending more hours managing investor communications than actually finding and operating deals.

Kevin doesn't run his fund like Blackstone. Institutional funds front-load commitments. They raise 500 million, then hunt for deals within an 18-month window. That creates pressure to deploy capital whether deals actually make sense or not.

Kevin flipped it. When he has deals under contract, he raises capital. When he doesn't have deals that meet his buy box, he doesn't raise anything. Investor money sits in a trust account earning 4% until deployment, with a maximum wait time of two months.

This structure solves multiple problems at once.

Here's what Kevin said that stuck with me: "There's one truth with any proforma—it's never going to turn out exactly how you laid it out."

Every deal either exceeds expectations or misses the mark. With individual syndications, one bad deal means every investor in that specific deal takes a loss. 

With a fund structure, outperformance on three deals can offset underperformance on two others.

Kevin's seen this pattern play out across 15 properties per fund. Some deals crush projections, others hit singles instead of doubles. The fund creates stability his LPs couldn't access if each deal stood alone.

Kevin was clear that there's no universal right answer here. If you're doing 1-2 deals per year, individual syndications work fine. You're not drowning in administrative chaos yet.

But if you're doing 6+ deals per year, your infrastructure cost starts to justify the fund structure. 

Kevin's rule of thumb: if you're spending more time managing investor communications than finding and operating deals, you may have hit the inflection point.

The operators who fail at funds make one critical mistake: they try to copy the institutional model. 

They raise commitments upfront, then feel pressure to deploy everything within 24 months. Bad deals get done because the capital's already committed and the clock is ticking.

Kevin's version removes that pressure entirely. His fund might go four months with no new capital raises because he doesn't have deals meeting his standards. His LPs have learned to trust him enough to wait for the right opportunities.

Kevin manages close to 1,000 investors across all his funds. If he'd structured this as individual syndications, he'd need three full-time people just handling K-1s and quarterly reports.

The lesson isn't that funds are categorically better than syndications. It's that you need to build your structure around your actual deal flow and operational capacity, not what you think you're supposed to do.

If six simultaneous deals would give you a migraine, you may be ready for a fund. If you're doing two deals a year and enjoying the simplicity, stick with syndications. 

The structure should serve your operation, not the other way around.