🏙️ What I'd tell my younger self...

Good morning. It's Sunday, Feb. 1, and in this week's edition, we're covering AI's takeover of San Francisco office space, what Trump's Fed chair pick means for borrowing costs, a cooling apartment market, and the four moves I'd make differently if I started over today. First time reading? Join over 10K million commercial real estate professionals. Sign up here.

And, as always, send us feedback at [email protected].

I don't do this often, but Rafik Moore is the real deal. He's the guy who catapulted my commercial real estate career. His Value Add Network includes weekly coaching calls, direct access to Rafik, deal flow, capital raising, community events, and more. He's quietly created 40 millionaires—and he's committed to a thousand more. If you're serious about commercial real estate, here's the link to apply. Tell them Saul sent you for the friends and family rate.

[APPLY TO WORK WITH RAFIK MOORE]

AI is resurrecting San Francisco's office market. Tech demand surged 165% year-over-year in 2025, pushing the city to second place nationally with demand at 68% of pre-pandemic levels, per VTS. AI tenants are signing leases faster than any previous cycle, and institutional capital is circling back. The window to get in may be narrowing.

The apartment market is frozen in place. National one-bedroom rents slipped to $1,503 in January, with year-over-year growth still negative as new supply gets absorbed, per Zumper. Landlords are prioritizing retention over rent hikes while renters enjoy rare leverage. Spring leasing season should signal whether the thaw is coming.

President Trump tapped Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair in May. Markets reacted with rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, signaling expectations Warsh may keep rates elevated despite Trump's preference for cuts. For CRE investors tracking borrowing costs, Senate confirmation hearings will be critical.

Yesterday morning, I was scrolling through reader questions and one from Paul caught my eye:

"If you started all over again, Saul, what would you do differently?"

I sat with that for a minute, made another cup of tea, and thought about how every decision I made seemed right at the time. It's only now, with distance, that I can see where I stayed too long or moved too slow.

Jeff Bezos has a quote that nails it: "We are stubborn on vision. We are flexible on details."

That's the game. The vision (building value in real estate) never changed. But the details? The strategy, the asset class, the tactics? I should've shifted those faster when the market moved.

So here's what I'd do differently, broken into four moves:

I spent a decade in housing and brokerage, selling 2,000 homes and renovating hundreds of them. It taught me everything: how to see problems, how to fix them, how to move fast.

But commercial real estate has leverage that housing doesn't. More complexity, sure, and more moving parts, but way more upside per deal.

Looking back, I could've made the move ten years earlier. Would I be further ahead today? Probably. But here's the thing: you can't see it while you're in it. You only see it looking back.

Between 2009 and 2012, I was selling REOs (bank-owned properties). The model was printing money during the financial collapse cleanup.

But I got stuck. When the market started improving around 2012, I should've seen it coming and shifted faster. Instead, I kept riding the REO wave until it dried up.

Wayne Gretzky said it best: “skate to where the puck is going, not where it is.”

I should've been more flexible, anticipating the next move instead of optimizing the current one.

No business model is permanent. Even Apple and Tesla constantly evolve. The fundamentals stay the same (improve quality, reduce cost), but the execution changes with the market.

Early on, I chased quantity: more deals, more transactions, more activity.

But here's what I learned too late: quality assets require less of your time and attention, and they appreciate more over time.

Don't get me wrong: value-add deals are still the bread and butter. They deliver fast wins and taught me how to operate. But quality assets compound differently. Even without the quick value-add pop, they grow steadily and demand less mental bandwidth.

This one stings the most.

I spent years fixing problems on existing buildings through value-add and repositioning. It works, but it also gets saturated fast.

Ground-up development is a moat. Once you learn how to build from dirt (efficiently, affordably, and with quality) no one can take that skill from you.

The barrier to entry is high, the competition is thin, and the market doesn't saturate nearly as fast as value-add does.

It's like an art form. You're not just fixing, you're creating. That's a competitive advantage that sticks with you forever.

Here's the honest part: I don't have an ounce of regret.

Everything happened exactly as it needed to. Every skill I built in housing made me better in commercial, and every pivot taught me something new.

And if you asked me this question ten years from now, my answer would probably be completely different. Every year, you gain new wisdom, and the goalposts keep moving.

Fifteen years ago, I would've said, "I wish I built a massive house-flipping operation across the country." Today, that answer sounds insane. There's nothing left to fit and flip, because such a big portion of homes already got renovated in the last ten years.

The real lesson isn't about what I should've done, It's about staying flexible while keeping your vision clear.

If you could go back and advise yourself at the start of your career, what would you say?

What move would you make sooner?

What strategy would you drop faster?

Hit reply. I want to know.

Until next Sunday.

Be well,

Saul

P.S. Missed my podcast with Logan Freeman? Here is the full episode.

Videos & podcasts: I publish them weekly. Subscribe on YouTube, Apple Podcast or Spotify.

Random Saul Fact: Last Wednesday, we hosted our first Off-market Chicago luncheon with the city's top deal makers—it was a hit, and we're doing it again.