Good morning. It's Sunday, July 19th, and in this week's edition, we're covering JLL's survey showing retail real estate has flipped from recovery to a position of strength, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan breaking ranks to call for higher rates, and the due diligence checklist I still run on every acquisition (yours to steal).
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Retail real estate has flipped from recovery to strength, according to JLL's 2026 U.S. Retail Investor Survey. Q1 transaction volume hit $13.5 billion, up 5% year-over-year, and trailing 12-month volume climbed 31% to $62 billion - retail's biggest share of U.S. sector investment in a decade at 14%. The driver is a supply squeeze: net deliveries ran 25% below the decade average as construction costs stall new projects, handing existing centers low vacancy and real pricing power. 64% of investors plan to buy more this year; only 48% plan to sell more. Grocery-anchored centers stay the gold standard, power centers are close behind, and malls are now shunned by over half. Tellingly, 68% would rather chase yield in secondary and tertiary markets than overpay in primary ones - the institutional bid is moving into smaller operators' backyards, and the window to buy quality retail below replacement cost is closing.
"Chick-Fil-A Already Did Your Real Estate Research": Tyler Cauble makes the case that Chick-Fil-A's site-selection team has already done the expensive work for you - the traffic counts, rooftop density, and demographic screens behind every location they approve. He walks through how to read those signals and let one of retail's most disciplined site pickers de-risk your own location calls. Watch here
"A Day in the Life: Apartment Complex Operator": Ben Mallah walks you through a working day running one of his apartment complexes, from touring the property to handling the operational headaches that never show up in the pro forma. A grounded look at what owning multifamily actually demands after the deal closes. Watch here
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan just made the case for modestly higher interest rates, breaking from the cut camp entirely. Her read: core PCE sits at 3.4% and has climbed since December, and the New York Fed's core trend model pegs persistent inflation at the same 3.4%. Logan thinks inflation settles in the "mid 2's" on its own, not back to 2%, so some added restriction is needed to finish the job. She pointed to a solid labor market - unemployment averaging 4.3% in the first half, 92,000 jobs added a month - as room to move. The next FOMC meeting is July 28-29.
CRE Impact: A sitting Fed president openly arguing for hikes is the clearest signal yet that rate-cut refis are wishful thinking. Underwrite to flat-or-higher debt costs through year-end, and stress-test what you're closing now against a 25 bp move up, not down.
Two years ago I wrote about my due diligence checklist. It's had a small update since, but I still run it on every acquisition we do. So this week I'm handing it straight to you.
When you're under contract, you're carrying a hot potato. Your team is waiting at the finish line, and every day you run toward closing, you want it more. That wanting is exactly when people skip steps. The checklist keeps you honest while the potato is hot, because the best deals are the deals you don't buy. A good list surfaces the seller's problems before they become yours.
Back then it lived in my iPhone Notes. Today it's a Google Sheet my Claude Cowork setup produces on demand and sends me weekly. Same discipline, better delivery. The rule hasn't changed: it must pass 100% before we buy. No exceptions. (Ask me how I know.)
Here's the checklist. Copy it, adapt it to your deals, and fly through your next DD with it:
What's the one item on your DD list that's saved you the most money - or the one you learned to add the hard way?
Hit reply.
I read every one.
LET ME HEAR IT
Until next Sunday.
Be well,
Saul
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