🏙️ a four-hour work week

Good morning. It's Sunday, May 23rd, and in this week's edition, we're covering why elevated oil prices are quietly building pressure on CRE construction costs, NOI, and tenant demand, why the Fed's April meeting minutes put rate hikes back on the table for the first time this cycle, and a personal piece on my friend Shay - who scaled down to four hours a week, turned a beat-up Pensacola strip center into a very profitable exit, and left me sitting with one question I can't shake.

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Off Market: 22K Sq Ft Retail | Downtown Mundelein, IL | No Columns | 100+ Parking

We are closing on an off-market retail property at 149 North Seymour Avenue in Mundelein, IL and looking to place the right tenant right away - someone ready to lease or lease with an option to buy down the road.

22,000 SF of contiguous space, 18-20 ft clear height, zero interior columns. Best fit for a sports facility, fitness operator, or any business needing open, unobstructed floor space. Asking $10-$12/SF - well below the $15-$20/SF market in the area. We are open to building out for the right operator.

If you're a tenant, operator, or know someone looking for this type of space, reply to this email and we'll connect.

Mortgage Professional America reports that military strikes on Iran earlier this year sent oil prices climbing, with the Survey of Professional Forecasters now projecting CPI hitting 6% in Q2 2026 - nearly double where it stood three months ago. First American senior CRE economist Xander Snyder breaks down how elevated energy prices filter into commercial real estate: higher gas costs compress household budgets, softening retail sales and warehouse demand; transport cost increases push up construction materials and repair costs, squeezing NOI margins. On rates, Snyder thinks a 25 bp hike is plausible but expects no dramatic action. His read: CRE can absorb a modest hike because prices have already corrected enough to provide a cushion - but if energy costs stay elevated for an extended stretch, the pressure on NOI and construction economics becomes a different problem entirely.

🔗 "How Blackstone Is Thinking About IPOs, Hard Assets & AI Investing | Jon Gray's Market Views Q2 2026": Blackstone President Jon Gray breaks down how the world's largest CRE portfolio manager is positioning through volatility - calling real estate "the least bubbly asset class out there" and pointing to early signs of recovery taking hold. He covers the firm's pivot toward hard assets, what's driving the AI infrastructure buildout in data centers and power, and why 2026 is shaping up as the year of the IPO. Watch here.

🔗 "William Zeckendorf: The Man Who Played Monopoly With America": The developer who moved the UN to New York on a cocktail napkin, discovered a then-unknown architecture student named I.M. Pei - who went on to become one of the most celebrated architects of the 20th century - and invented a financing structure that became the blueprint for how commercial real estate debt gets packaged and sold to investors today. He reshaped Denver, Montreal, and lower Manhattan before one creditor called one note and collapsed his entire empire in a single afternoon in 1965. Watch here.

Yahoo Finance published the minutes from the Fed's April meeting Wednesday showing officials leaning toward holding rates longer than previously expected - and putting hikes back on the table if inflation stays above 2%. Three members - Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack - dissented, pushing to drop language that signals the next move is a cut. The majority agreed that "some policy firming" - Fed-speak for hikes - would likely become appropriate if inflation keeps running hot. Middle East conflict and elevated energy prices are the primary cited headwinds, with members warning that sustained oil prices plus tariffs could trigger broader inflation.

CRE Impact: No cuts are coming unless inflation breaks or the labor market cracks. Model for rates holding at current levels through at least late 2026. Any refi or acquisition underwriting that assumes rate relief this year needs to be revised now.

This past week I had my good friend Shay Yakobovich on the pod. A few minutes in, I pulled up my calendar and turned my screen toward the camera.

Fifteen appointments this week. Broker calls. Investor check-ins. County meetings. Contractor walk-throughs. The usual.

"Now you show me yours," I said.

Shay held up his. Three things on it. A reminder. A callback. That's it.

"I keep it intentionally empty," he told me. "I wake up and I don't want to know what my day looks like."

You might remember Shay from six months ago - sharp Israeli investor, retail and flex industrial, built a serious portfolio out of Miami. Back then he was already pulling back. Today he's further down that road. He's been spending his days in Thailand. CrossFit in the morning. Beach in the afternoon. Four or five hours of work a week. His brother runs the day-to-day.

And while doing all of that, he quietly bought a Pensacola strip center, fixed it up, and is listing it next month.

The numbers: about 30,000 SF. He paid $1.5M roughly three years ago - 75% occupied, rents way below market. He's all in at $2.1M. Today it's 97% occupied, every lease converted to triple net. At a 7.75% cap, it sells for a little over $6M. Roughly $3.5M in profit. No investors. No partners.

But the part that really stuck with me wasn't the deal.

Shay told me about a mentor he met in Thailand - a former tech entrepreneur who by his early 30s had invested in over 100 companies. Living large. Cars, travel, the whole thing. Then he got to Thailand and met a Buddhist monk. That meeting changed everything. The monk showed him there is far more to life than chasing more. Eventually, the tech guy gave away his businesses, gave away almost everything, and joined the monastery.

When Shay met him, he was living in a modest apartment. Simple life. Fully at peace. And what he passed along to Shay was a shift in direction - stop chasing more, start wanting less. Not as a sacrifice. As a choice.

That hit Shay. And if I'm being straight with you, it hit me too.

My calendar still has fifteen things on it. I'm not walking away from any of it. But I've been sitting with a question he left me with, and I want to leave it with you too.

Now I'm curious. What are you chasing?

And when you get there - will it be enough?

And if you've figured out a way to stay grateful for what you already have, I really want to hear that.

Until next Sunday.

Be well,

Saul

P.S. I built an AI bot that reads OMs and flyers straight from my inbox — cap rate, NOI, price per SF, broker contacts — without me lifting a finger. It saves me 1-2 hours a day and keeps my pipeline organized so deals actually make it to contract. If you want to see it in action, reply "show me" and attach one of your OMs or flyers. I'll run it through and send you back what it finds. No signup required.