Good morning. It's Sunday, July 12, and in this week's edition, we're covering new Census data showing remote work isn't going anywhere no matter what the return-to-office headlines say, why Kevin Warsh's first FOMC minutes just put a rate hike back on the table, and why I'm stepping back from writing Deep Dives to spend more hours underwriting deals.
First time reading? Sign up here.
And, as always, send us feedback at [email protected].
Fortune's read of new Census Bureau data shows remote work isn't dying, no matter how loud the return-to-office headlines get. Via the Minneapolis Fed, the data shows 22% of U.S. workers still logged remote time in 2025, just a point off 2024, holding steady at 22-22.3% into early 2026. Workplace research firm Leesman backs it up: across the 100-130 large companies it tracks, only about 3% are five days a week in office. JPMorgan and the big banks make headlines, but they're the outlier, not the trend.
What it means for CRE: Underwrite office demand assuming hybrid is permanent, not a phase you're waiting out. Space-per-employee models built on a full return to five days will miss badly. One HR software company made the point better than any survey: it dropped 15,000 square feet of Denver office for a 600-square-foot WeWork, and applications for open roles jumped from about 170 to over 4,000.
"This App Gives AI Agents Satellite Data": Andreas Klinger sits down with the founders of Tilebox, a platform that puts satellite data (once locked up for hedge funds and defense) into plain-language AI prompts. The demo that matters for CRE: mapping roughly 700 U.S. data center buildouts from satellite imagery in a few hours. Site selection and due diligence from orbit isn't science fiction anymore. Watch here
"I Bought an Abandoned Mill Outside Chattanooga (Peerless Mill Update)": Tyler Cauble gives a four-years-later update on Peerless Mill, a 1.5-million-square-foot former wool mill outside Chattanooga he bought for $5.6 million with two partners, no syndication. A $1.6M self-storage build-out is already cash-flowing $15-30K a month, funding the next phases: restaurant and flex tenants, then a brewery in the old boiler room. Watch here
Reuters' read of the June FOMC minutes shows Kevin Warsh's Fed has flipped the script: this is turning into a hike conversation, not a cut conversation. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on June 17, but nine of eighteen policymakers now project rates slightly higher by year-end, and a few participants said the case for raising rates already existed last month. Warsh, running his first meeting as chair, cut the policy statement by 20% and stripped out all forward guidance, with fears that the AI investment boom is fueling inflation entering the debate for the first time. Rate futures now price a hike by the September meeting, not a cut.
CRE Impact: Shelve any deal underwritten on falling cap rates or cheaper 2027 refi debt. Floating-rate borrowers and anyone counting on a rate-driven recovery in transaction volume just lost the tailwind they were banking on.
No Deep Dive this week. Here's why.
I'm back in full acquisition mode - sourcing, talking to sellers, underwriting deals every week. That work now gets the hours I used to spend writing. It's also where every Deep Dive I've written came from in the first place.
So here's the new format: Deep Dives now run once or twice a month, pulled straight from live deals - what I'm buying, what I passed on, and the numbers behind both. In between, I'll send short dispatches from the trenches: what sellers are saying, what's pencilling and what isn't, what debt quotes look like this week.
Everything else stays weekly - News & Moves, Fed Pulse, Favorite Finds.
One more thing: we're buying.
If you own a value-add deal you're ready to sell - or one that's turned into more headache than it's worth - reply to this email and I'll take a look.
LET ME HEAR IT
Until next Sunday.
Be well,
Saul
P.S. Missed my podcast with Danny Newberry? Here is the full episode.
Videos & podcasts: I publish them weekly. Subscribe on YouTube, Apple Podcast or Spotify.
