The post-pandemic logistics boom is officially losing steam, and the numbers don't lie. The Logistics Managers' Index dropped to 57.4 in September—its lowest reading in six months—as freight demand cooled and warehouse utilization settled at 65.3, well below the eight-year average of 65.1 for transportation. Warehouse pricing growth also slowed dramatically, falling more than six points to 66.0, while trade uncertainty and potential tariff hikes cloud the 12-month outlook. For industrial investors, it's a clear signal that the breakneck expansion is moderating, which should temper rent growth expectations and make underwriting those Sun Belt spec developments a lot trickier heading into 2026.

AI is rewriting the playbook for life science real estate, and landlords are sitting on a mountain of obsolete lab space as a result. Biotech firms now need roughly a third less space per employee thanks to computer simulations replacing physical lab work, leaving 61 million square feet vacant across the U.S. (triple the amount from four years ago) with more than 220 properties sitting completely empty. JLL's projecting 18.7 million square feet will pivot to alternative uses by 2030 as oversupply collides with AI-driven demand shifts, venture capital pullbacks, and changing federal funding priorities. For CRE investors, it's a painful reminder that even specialized, high-barrier sectors aren't immune to technological disruption. Stick to core life science hubs like Boston and San Diego, or start planning conversion strategies now.

The Fed's playing a delicate balancing act as rate cuts inch forward despite internal divisions. Officials split 10-9 on the pace of easing, with the slim majority backing two more quarter-point cuts by year-end to bring rates down to 4%, while concerns mount over a weakening labor market even as inflation pressures persist. The lone dissenter, newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, pushed for a more aggressive half-point cut, signaling just how fractured the committee's views have become. For CRE investors, the measured pace means borrowing costs will ease gradually (not the rapid relief some hoped for) keeping cap rate compression in check through 2025.

Chicago's multifamily market just claimed the top spot for rent growth nationwide, notching a 3.7% year-over-year increase in Q3 (a full percentage point ahead of the runner-up and more than double the market's 2.6% growth from a year earlier). Limited new supply and rising demand are fueling the city's surge, while the national average sits at a measly 0.6%, leaving Chicago firmly ahead of the 25 largest markets. For multifamily investors eyeing opportunities outside the typical Sun Belt darlings, Chicago's proving that Midwest fundamentals (constrained deliveries paired with steady demand) can deliver outsized returns even as coastal markets flatline.

Last week on the podcast, Will Curtis dropped a data point that could change how you think about office recovery:

The Labor Leverage Ratio.

You see, while everyone's staring at vacancy rates trying to figure out when office will recover, Will's tracking something completely different.

Here's how it works.

Take the number of people getting hired. Compare it to the number quitting and getting fired. Build a ratio.

When that ratio sits above 1.0, employees have the power. 

They can quit whenever they want because there are plenty of jobs. They can demand remote work. They can tell their boss they're not coming back to the office.

When it drops below 1.0, employers have the leverage. Suddenly, "we need you back in the office three days a week" isn't a request anymore.

During COVID, this ratio shot through the roof. About 65-70% of companies did absolutely nothing to employees who ignored return-to-office mandates.

That was peak employee power.

Here's what Will noticed: we're back to the same labor leverage levels we saw about six to nine months after COVID started.

The ratio's been dropping steadily. And as it drops, office occupancy has been climbing right alongside it.

There's no proven causation here, but the correlation is hard to ignore.

What does this mean practically? Companies are finally getting their leverage back. 

The "work from home forever" crowd is running into a different reality. Employers can actually enforce their policies now without watching their entire workforce walk out the door.

Will teaches at a university. He's got sophomores, juniors, and seniors in his classes.

And here's what he's seeing: they actually want to go to the office.

These kids spent most of high school locked up for COVID. They're starving for interaction. They want to be around peers where they can learn and grow. 

They're not demanding remote work like the generation ahead of them!

As this new graduating class enters the workforce over the next few years, the cultural shift around office work could accelerate faster than anyone expects.

So, if you're trying to time the office market, stop watching vacancy rates by themselves. They're a lagging indicator. They tell you what already happened.

The labor market tells you what's coming.

Will's not saying office is back to boom times. We're still working through serious challenges. But the trend line is pointing in a direction that's been missing for five years.

For investors with staying power, the window to buy office at distressed pricing might be narrower than it looks. 

Once the broader market figures out what the labor data is already showing, those opportunities disappear fast!