Cap rates might finally be catching their breath after two years of relentless climbing. CBRE's latest survey shows all-property cap rates dipped 9 basis points in the first half of 2025, with most asset classes moving in lockstep - a rare moment of harmony in a market that's been anything but predictable. The Treasury's wild ride from 4.8% in January to 4.2% by June, punctuated by tariff shocks and a Moody's downgrade, kept investors on edge even as yields compressed. Office continues its identity crisis with widening valuation spreads on Class B and C properties. For CRE investors betting on a pivot, this could be the early innings of yield compression (assuming the macro chaos doesn't throw another curveball).

Commercial property prices just gave investors their first back-to-back annual gains since mid-2022, and the momentum is building. MSCI's July data shows the all-property index up 0.9% year-over-year and climbing at a 7.7% annualized clip (though values remain down 11.2% from their frothy 2022 peaks). Industrial continues crushing it with prices up 10% over three years. CBD office is still in free fall, down 47% from three years ago. Despite multifamily dropping 19% over three years and retail off 5.4%, transaction volumes picked up in H1 2025 as investor sentiment shifted from doom to "cautious optimism." For CRE players sitting on dry powder, the divergence between industrial strength and office weakness is creating selective buying opportunities as the Fed contemplates rate cuts.

Fed Governor Chris Waller just gave the clearest signal yet that rate cuts are coming, backing a series of reductions over the next six months with an attitude that's music to leveraged investors' ears. Speaking in Miami Thursday, Waller (who's reportedly on Trump's shortlist to replace Powell in May) said rates could drop 125-150 basis points from current levels, though he's not yet sold on a jumbo 50-point cut in September unless the August jobs report shows serious deterioration. The backdrop is getting increasingly chaotic, as Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week in an unprecedented power play, while continuing his daily barrage against Powell. With the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25%-4.5% and Waller eyeing a 3% neutral rate, CRE borrowers could see meaningful relief by year-end (assuming the political fireworks don't derail the whole show).

Bally's just cleared another major hurdle for its $1.7 billion Chicago casino complex with the issuance of core and shell permits for both the casino and 34-story hotel tower at 705 W. Chicago Avenue. The riverfront development (featuring 3,300 slots, 173 table games, a 500-room hotel, 3,000-seat theater, and six restaurants) is racing toward a late 2026 opening after relocating the hotel tower south due to underground infrastructure issues. HKS Architects designed the seven-story casino to maximize the Chicago River frontage with a 2,000-foot riverwalk extension and rooftop restaurant overlooking the skyline. With Chicago Community Builders Collective already securing caisson, tower crane, and superstructure permits, construction is in full swing. For hospitality investors, this represents one of the largest gaming developments in the Midwest and a major bet that Chicago's casino market can support a Vegas-style integrated resort.

Michael Bull could have climbed the ladder at any national brokerage firm.

At 22, he'd already captured a massive share of Atlanta's multifamily market. The big shops were throwing offers at him left and right.

Instead, he started his own firm. Why?

"There were brokers at each of those firms doing things I didn't think were right for the client," he told me. "It wasn't the way I'd want my property sold if I was the client."

That decision 27 years ago built an $8 billion empire. You see, Michael understood something that many ambitious operators miss: 

Integrity is your strongest competitive advantage.

When lenders need someone to handle REO properties, they don't just want a broker. They want someone both sides trust. Michael has become that neutral party between lenders and borrowers. 

Not because he's soft. Because he's honest.

Banks literally require borrowers to list with him. They copy him on all offers and counteroffers, because they know it's being done right.

Think about that for a second.

Financial institutions (the most risk-averse entities on the planet) mandate that their borrowers use one specific broker.

That doesn't happen because you're good at marketing. That happens because you've proven, deal after deal, that you'll do the right thing even when no one's watching.

Twenty-seven years of doing things "the way you'd want it done if you were the client" creates something powerful.

Your reputation becomes your marketing. Your past clients become your sales force. Your integrity becomes your moat.

Michael just sold a distressed office tower (all cash, full price, in two weeks) after national firms couldn't move it for two years.

How did he do it? The buyer didn't just trust the deal. They trusted the dealer.

That's the compound effect of integrity. 

Every honest deal makes the next one easier. Every transparent transaction builds your reputation. 

Every time you choose the client's interest over the easy commission, you're making a deposit in an account that pays dividends forever.

Look at your next deal - the one you're working on right now. 

Ask yourself Michael's question: "Is this the way I'd want it done if I was the client?"

If the answer is no, change it. Even if it costs you time. Even if it costs you money.

Making that small decision, over and over again, is how empires get built.