Colliers is calling it: CRE's reset is here. Their 2026 outlook forecasts transaction volume jumping 15-20%, office vacancy dropping below 18%, and industrial finding equilibrium near 7.6% as construction stays muted. For investors waiting on the sidelines, this reads like the starting gun for the next cycle.

With U.S. property values still 17% below 2022 peaks and REIT stocks at their cheapest versus equities in 20 years, contrarian investors are circling commercial real estate. RXR is already scooping up Manhattan offices at 30-50% discounts. Construction costs up 40% since 2020 means existing landlords could see extended rent growth with little new competition.

December's cut looks locked in, but Goldman expects a January pause before resuming cuts in March and June (landing at 3-3.25%). The wildcard is a softening labor market among college grads. For CRE, that means continued financing relief through mid-year with potential for deeper cuts if employment weakens further.

Former Sterling Bay exec Scott Gibbel wants to demolish Glenview's mostly vacant Caremark Towers and build a 395,000-square-foot industrial park targeting underserved shallow-bay users. It's a second attempt after Dermody's 2023 plan died amid rising rates, and local opposition is already mobilizing ahead of the Dec. 10 hearing.

This week, a reader asked me: "How do you find deals?"

It's a great question. It’s also a question I've answered a hundred times in one form or another.

On my birthday morning, scanning through questions like this, something hit me differently.

Every "how-to" I share (leasing, sourcing, underwriting, building value) didn't come from me.

Not really.

Every framework, every principle, every instinct I have was downloaded from someone else.

It was learned from people who, for whatever reason, were put in my life to shape me into who I am.

They're the giants. I just got to climb up and see the view.

So instead of another tactical deep dive, I want to do something I don't do enough: acknowledge my mentors.

One by one.

Tony Robbins. Schaumburg, Illinois. 2009. Unleash the Power Within.

My wife Rosi and I sat in the Renaissance Schaumburg Convention Center at Unleash The Power Within, and something clicked. Tony introduced me to self-development. Not self-help, but the idea that you can actually design who you become.

I walked out believing anything was possible. It sounds cliché until it becomes true for you.

Coach Dapkevicius, my first rugby coach, taught me as a teenager that you can outrain and outwork anyone. It just depends on how many hours of undivided focus you're willing to put in.

Simple, powerful, and still true to this day.

Don Gudmundson at Century 21 broke it down for me early in my real estate career: "This game is easy: whoever makes the most phone calls wins."

Simple math. More calls, more wins. I've never forgotten it.

Mom and Dad taught me hard work, honesty, integrity, loyalty, and one unspoken rule: just get the shit done, no matter what.

Pat Hiban poured wisdom into me, but one lesson shaped our family deeply: love equals time. That's it. That's the whole formula.

David Osborn stretched my thinking. When I complained "there's no deals," he asked one question: "How many deals did you look at this week?" There are thousands of deals trading hands every day. You just have to find them.

Tim Rhode introduced me to designing life intentionally through a 5-year vision. Most of what we mapped out 10 years ago actually happened.

Arnold Kozys was my partner on my first commercial building. He taught me how to buy big. Thank you so much.

Rafik Moore (my friend, my partner, my brother in life) stretches me every single day and shows me what's possible in commercial real estate and in life.

Hector Torres, my Iron Man coach, believed in me when I fell off the wagon. He helped me get back in athlete shape.

Phil Towle, my performance coach, somehow pulls the right lever every time. He's helped me evolve my mind and soul into an ever-expanding entrepreneur and conscious human. It's not easy, but it's worth it.

My Vail mastermind brothers. Thank you for the friendship, vulnerability, insights, and accountability. You push me past limits I didn't know I had.

My kids: Marty, Nikolas, and Victoria. They stretch me beyond my comfort zone daily. They've taught me to be a student of life, not a teacher.

And my wife, Rosi. She showed up when there wasn't much in the bank account or on the résumé. She believed in us when I didn't have clarity on how far we could go. She keeps up with my insatiable desire to do more, expand more, transform more - all while keeping me grounded.

Here's why I'm telling you this:

None of us build anything alone. Every skill you have, every lesson you carry - someone gave that to you!

So here's my challenge: think about who shaped you. 

The coaches, the partners, the family members, the people who believed in you before the results showed up.

And if you haven't told them lately, maybe tell them this week.

It's liberating to write this. I don't do it enough.

But at least on my birthday, I got to say it out loud.

Thank you to every person who showed up in my life, and for every teaching and lesson that helped to build who I am.