The AI boom needs dirt - about 25,000 acres of it in the U.S. alone to meet surging data center demand. Enter Uncle Sam's real estate portfolio: NASA's underused Glenn Research Center in Ohio spans 6,400 acres with existing power infrastructure, the West LA VA Medical Center sits on 388 prime acres (most vacant or underutilized), and the cash-strapped USPS owns a staggering 20,000 acres across 8,500 properties while drowning in $100 billion of debt. Federal land sales could kill three birds with one stone: cement American AI leadership, unlock high-value development sites in power-corridor locations, and generate revenue for agencies that desperately need it. For CRE investors eyeing data center plays, Washington could be the next major supply catalyst.

Commercial mortgage lending just posted its fifth consecutive quarter of growth, with Q3 2025 originations jumping 36% year-over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter as property values stabilized and refinancing kicked into high gear. Previously distressed sectors are roaring back, led by office loans up 181%, retail surging 100%, and hotels climbing 66%, while multifamily (the early recovery darling) posted a more modest 27% gain. Industrial and healthcare lagged, with healthcare originations actually dropping 43%, but the overall momentum suggests the recovery is finally spreading beyond apartments into the property types that got hammered hardest during the downturn. For investors tracking capital flows, this is another confirmation that lenders are betting on stabilization across the board.

Markets got whipsawed as December Fed rate cut odds collapsed from 90% certainty to a coin flip in just two weeks, sending Treasury yields up and stocks tumbling in their worst session in a month. The rapid shift follows stubborn inflation data and an emerging hawk-dove split between Fed governors (leaning dovish) and regional bank presidents (not so much), with the next fully-priced rate cut now pushed out to March 2026. Meanwhile, both the U.S. and Japan are deploying fiscal stimulus to fight inflation (Trump's $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks and Japan's $92 billion-plus package) despite economists warning that goosing spending when inflation's already above target is like dousing a fire with gasoline. For CRE investors, the takeaway is clear: higher-for-longer borrowing costs are looking increasingly baked in, and any rescue from the Fed keeps getting pushed further down the road.

Chicago's downtown office vacancy just hit an all-time high of 28% in Q3, with the Loop hemorrhaging 2.3 million square feet over the past two years (nearly double what disappeared during the Great Recession). Remote work continues reshaping demand, but Illinois Policy Institute researchers argue City Hall is making things worse by creating regulatory barriers to office-to-residential conversions, the exact strategy that's working in Midtown Manhattan. The downtown has become a ghost town after 5 PM as workers commute in and out without sticking around to support retail or restaurants, creating a doom loop of declining foot traffic and rising vacancies. With Chicago also facing a housing crunch, converting vacant Loop towers into residential units could address both problems simultaneously (if policymakers can get out of their own way). For CRE investors, Chicago's office woes underscore the urgent need for adaptive reuse strategies in legacy gateway markets still clinging to pre-pandemic work patterns.

Christopher Borden has done over $30 million in private lending deals since he started five years ago. 

Zero foreclosures. Never advertises. Doesn't cold call borrowers or chase deal flow.

When I asked him on the podcast how he sources loans, he started by summarizing just how simply his journey began: 

"It started with one conversation at an event. Someone needed money for a project. I had capital sitting there. We structured the deal, and it just grew from there."

That first deal led to a second. The second borrower referred a third. Other lenders in his market started sharing opportunities they couldn't fund. And now, his RIA funnels deals to him. 

It became a self-sustaining system built entirely on relationships, not marketing.

The thing is, most operators I talk to are trying to do the exact opposite!

They're grinding through broker calls, running direct mail campaigns, scraping public records, trying to manufacture deal flow through sheer volume and hustle. 

It's exhausting, and it fundamentally misunderstands how real estate actually works at scale.

Chris came from 25 years as a grocery retail CEO. In that world, if you walked into a competitor's store and they recognized you, security would escort you out.

Competition was zero-sum. You protected your territory, your customers, and your data.

Real estate is the exact opposite. Chris partners with other lenders in Utah now. 

When he can't fund a deal, he shares it. When they're tapped out, they send deals his way. The more he gives away, the more comes back. 

It's an abundance mindset that seems obvious when you say it out loud.

But here's the piece of it that many operators miss: 

You can't just do deals quietly and hope people remember you. You have to actively give your niche life. 

Chris posts about residential lending constantly. He educates people who will never become borrowers. He speaks at events just to share what he's learned.

The more visible you are in your specific lane, the more you become the first call when that exact opportunity appears. When someone in Utah needs a residential bridge loan, they think of Chris.

The strategy isn't complicated. Build relationships with three types of people: 

Add value before asking for anything. 

Share a deal that doesn't work for you. Make an introduction. Teach something you learned the hard way. 

The best deal flow doesn't come from hunting, it comes from people who already trust you picking up the phone when they find something.

Chris started his journey to $30 million in lending volume from one random conversation at one event. Not because he had the best rates or the slickest marketing, but because he understood something most operators miss: 

In real estate, relationships compound faster than any other asset class.