🗞️ News & Moves 🏠

San Francisco office comeback no one saw coming! (Commercial Observer)

At one point, San Francisco’s iconic Transamerica Pyramid Tower was only half full, struggling to keep tenants.

Fast forward through a $250M renovation, and it’s now at 85% occupancy—a major turnaround.

The real heroes? Tech companies, especially AI firms, driving a huge surge in leasing activity.

While Class B offices still face challenges, rent hikes and a pause on new projects until 2025 are helping stabilize the market.

With a business-friendly mayor in charge, SF’s office scene is starting to find its groove again.

Could this be the rebound everyone’s been waiting for?

US businesses are back in the game (Bloomberg)

November saw a 0.7% jump in core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment—a much-needed rebound after October’s dip.

Machinery, computers, and metals led the way, signaling cautious optimism from businesses post-election.

Companies may also be pulling forward purchases ahead of potential new tariffs under the Trump administration.

However, durable goods as a whole dipped 1.1% due to fewer aircraft orders and lower defense spending.

High borrowing costs remain a challenge, but businesses seem ready to invest, hinting at better days ahead for the economy.

🚨 The Fed Pulse 🚨

🔻 A Hawkish Cut: The Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points last week but threw markets a curveball by signaling fewer cuts in 2025. Stocks and bonds tumbled as traders scrambled to adjust expectations.

📈 Persistent Inflation Drivers: Inflation isn’t backing down. A nationwide housing shortage is driving prices higher.

🚀 The Neutral Rate Rises: Say goodbye to ultra-low rates. Since the pandemic, the neutral rate (r*) has risen on the back of global borrowing, consumer resilience, and a corporate investment surge fueled by AI.

🏠 Housing’s Inflation Role: Lower rates may have nudged builders into action, but supply is still far behind demand. The Fed’s tools can’t fix this housing crunch, leaving inflation’s structural roots intact.

💡 Investor Takeaway: Rates aren’t coming down quickly. Position for a higher-for-longer environment as the Fed navigates persistent inflation.

DEEP DIVE

I’m obsessed with making things a little better and measuring progress in everything I do.

Maybe it’s because the world is changing so fast that I feel the need to be part of that momentum—to stay ahead, not just keep up.

Every day, I’m hit with a thousand notifications.

AI is speeding up how we consume information.

I’m juggling 20 conversations at once.

And social media? It moves at the speed of light.

Change is everywhere, all the time.

It’s a mess.

But here’s the thing: in a world full of noise, quality information is King.

That’s why I’m here.

My job is to sift through the chaos and bring you the good stuff—the kind of insights that make you say, “Hell yeah, this is what I needed.”

Today, I’m sharing the banger emails of 2024.

The Journey So Far

Since launching this newsletter on July 6, 2024, I’ve sent 25 emails.

What started out as a way to stay in touch with our investors evolved into a community of like-minded real estate folks.

At first, I thought this would be all about marketing and leasing (open rates, lead costs, split tests, etc.).

But I learned fast: while a handful of you geeks love those topics as much as I do, the majority of you crave case studies and practical tools.

Checklists? Productivity hacks? Before-and-after case studies?

These were the real MVPs.

And the numbers back it up.

The Top 3 Bangers of 2024

Here’s the best of the best.

They are ranked by open rate and click-through rate (CTR).

CTR is when you dig deeper and click links in the email.

For reference, a 50% open rate and 3% CTR are great. These crushed those numbers.

🏙️ This is Non-Negotiable (73.49% Open Rate | 10.56% CTR) Commercial real estate deals live or die by due diligence. This email shared my secret weapon: the “DD/Closing Checklist.” If you’re in CRE and don’t have this, you’re flying blind. Read it here.

🏙️ 3 Years of Productivity Tech in 1 Email (69.8% Open Rate | 9.16% CTR) The right apps make all the difference. After testing countless tools, I curated the ones that actually work. This email is your productivity powerhouse. Read it here.

🏙️ A Breakdown of 165K Sq Ft Industrial Redevelopment (70.28% Open Rate | 6.89% CTR) Big risks, bigger rewards. This email detailed how we transformed a 165,000 sq ft property into $1M+ NOI. Milwaukee Tech Center, step by step. Read it here.

2025: Big Plans

1️⃣ Grow to 1,000 Readers

We’re at 623 subscribers—just 377 shy of the big 1,000. When I started this, I thought maybe a few people would care.

Turns out, a lot of you do, and it’s been amazing to see.

The inspiration for this newsletter came from the book “Berkshire Hathaway Letters to Shareholders.”

I wanted to stay in touch with our investors, but it has grown into something that serves much more.

The next milestone?

1,000 readers. When we hit it, we’ll get together offline for "Cocktails and Ice Breakers Party". Stay tuned; I'll let you know when we get there.

2️⃣ GOAT Case Studies & Hacks

You love case studies.

Next year, I’m bringing you even more—featuring the best deals and lessons from our Value Builders. 

These are real value add before and after case studies.

Hacks? I’ve got you covered.

From productivity tools to real estate models, I’ll keep sharing what works, what doesn’t, and what’s worth your time.

3️⃣ Live Webinars

Starting in 2025, I’ll host live Zoom sessions featuring guest readers and experts. 

No fluff—just deep dives into specific skills and strategies.

These won’t be recorded or shared later.

If you want in, you’ve got to show up.

A Quick Thank You

This newsletter has been one of the most rewarding parts of my year.

Your feedback, engagement, and support mean the world to me.

Thank you for being part of this journey.

To end on a high note: next week’s email is about our $6M school bus terminal deal. 

Picture this—closed in March 2020, one week before COVID shuts down schools 😱.

I have a hunch it will be another banger.

Don’t miss it.

Till next Sunday @ 9:07 am.