Chicagoâs real estate market is waking upâbig deals, big names, and a fresh wave of confidence.
Call it a comeback.
Office sales are at their highest in almost ten years.
Tenants are coming back to Chicago's empty office towers.
In 2024, Downtown Chicago's leasing activity reached 9.1 million square feet (msf).
This was up by 12.2% from the 8.2 msf in 2023.
Big companies like JPMorgan and Coca-Cola are expanding their footprint.
Governor Pritzker bought Ken Griffinâs luxury condos, which used to symbolize Chicagoâs decline, at a 44% discount.
With Google and Bain & Company, Inc. (Management Consulting Firm) looking at whatâs available, Chicago is more than stable.
Itâs preparing for a comeback, especially with wealthy investors joining in.
The cityâs past its worst.
The only question now is how high it can climb.
Forget bank robberiesâthis is digital grand larceny.
On February 21, hackers stole $1.46 billion from Bybit.
This amount is more than Saddam Husseinâs $1 billion bank heist.
North Korea has built a strong ability to break into target organizations and steal crypto assets.
They launder these gains through many blockchain transactions.
They pass through 50 wallets and use shady exchanges to launder the money.
The FBI confirmed North Koreaâs involvement.
This fuels its billion-dollar missile program.
Elliptic and Bybit are working hard to track and freeze funds.
But Pyongyang's money laundering is first-rate.
The question isnât who did itâitâs whether anyone can stop them before the money disappears for good.
U.S. 5 Year Treasury | U.S. 10 Year Treasury | Fed Funds Rate |
---|---|---|
4.021% âŹď¸ | 4.227% âŹď¸ | 4.33% â¸ď¸ |
The first half of 2025 is shaping up to be a slow burn, but the foundation for a stronger second half is still intact.
New home sales fell in January.
Money supply growth stayed steady at 0.9%.
However, signs show the market is adjusting, not struggling.
Jobless claims made headlines, but underlying trends show stability.
Real personal income is growing at a gradual pace.
This gives consumers some breathing room.
New tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico might raise inflation a bit.
However, this effect should lessen after a few quarters.
Long-term interest rates are changing.
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.26%.
This drop opens doors for borrowers.
For investors, this isnât a downturnâitâs a transition.
The economy is changing.
Vail Mastermind Group
Each February, I meet with a close group of real estate pros, entrepreneurs, and investors.
We call ourselves the Vail Mastermind Group.
We meet for 3 days, skiing and masterminding.
This was our fourth gathering.
With each one, our talks deepen.
Our insights become sharper, and our clarity grows stronger.
In this meeting, we covered a lot.
This time, we covered everythingâinvesting, business, longevity, relationships, parenting, and even why your first sentence in any conversation matters more than you think.
So, instead of one big lesson, Iâm sharing 20 of the best wisdom nuggets from our time together.
1ď¸âŁ If you can stay with the S&P for at least 5 years, you will win.
Stop chasing alphaâmost people lose because they get emotional.
2ď¸âŁ Buy, stay for the long haul, and don't sell.
Long-term investing works because time in the market beats timing the market.
3ď¸âŁ Cost average, always.
Buy the same stocks every month.
Donât worry about the price.
Just buy.
4ď¸âŁ Dividends + real estate cost segregation = powerful wealth strategy.
Use dividends for income and real estate depreciation to offset capital gains.
5ď¸âŁ Your goal should be cash flow, not net worth.
Cash flow pays for life.
Net worth just looks good on paper.
6ď¸âŁ If you buy a building with fleas (AKA problems), don't convince yourself that you can get rid of them.
If few owners before you couldn't do it, you may not be able to do it too.
7ď¸âŁ Sell problem buildings, keep problem-free ones.
Some buildings are smooth sailing to operate, and some have never-ending drama.
And you never know before you buy which one is which.
8ď¸âŁ It takes a long time to build cash flowâdonât give up.
Most people quit before they see the compounding benefits.
9ď¸âŁ If you start a fund, you're starting an operating business that needs 5 to 10 years to see returns.
Raising capital for this time horizon is more difficult than you think.
đ Flipping properties is greatâuntil you canât flip anymore.
Build cash flow alongside flips so you aren't forced to work forever.
1ď¸âŁ Spend more time with your kids NOW, not later.
Some of us thought, âIâll work hard while theyâre young, then enjoy later.â Wrong. They need you now.
2ď¸âŁ Put your phone away when youâre home.
It's a simple idea, yet being fully present at homeâphysically and mentallyâmakes a big difference.
3ď¸âŁ Date nights should be automatic.
Put weekly date nights on your calendar. If theyâre scheduled, they will happen.
4ď¸âŁ The first sentence you say to someone matters most.
âYou know how much I love youâ is better than âWhy didnât you do this?â
5ď¸âŁ If your teenage kids donât want to spend time with you, donât stop asking.
Theyâll come around. Just keep showing up.
6ď¸âŁ When do you realize youâve already won?
Winning isn't about hitting a specific number, it's about feeling grateful for everything you've done when you look back on it.
7ď¸âŁ Read: "Parenting with Love and Logic."
A simple guide for raising responsible kids with clear boundaries.
No nagging or power strugglesâjust effective parenting.
1ď¸âŁ Training your HRV is optimal for stacking your odds of longevity.
Here is how you improve it:
30 minutes of Zone 2 training, 4-6 times per week
20 minutes of Zone 4-5 training, 2 times per week
2ď¸âŁ Sleep is non-negotiable.
Lack of deep sleep = guaranteed memory loss and a very real risk of Alzheimerâs.
3ď¸âŁ Cold plunge â workout â sauna.
The order matters.
If you do a cold plunge last, you kill your workout gains.
The biggest takeaway from the weekend?
Simplify.
1ď¸âŁ Laser focus beats doing too much.
The dream you choose matters more than how hard you work on it.
2ď¸âŁ $1 in cash flow today is better than $2 in projected equity in three years.
Because projections donât pay the bills.
2ď¸âŁ You are in principal pay-down business.
Never sell and let your tenants pay off the loans.
A lot of us left Vail thinking about the same thing:
What am I doing that I donât need to be doing?
Thatâs all, folks.
Hope it was worth your time!
Be Well,